Saturday, June 23, 2007

The Road to Glory Starts in Samoa

Even though the OFC only gets .5 bids to the World Cup (1st place in Oceania has a home/away playoff with 5th place in Asia), the first rounds of FIFA 2010 qualifying begin with the Oceania teams.

With Australia having moved to the AFC, New Zealand become the regional favorite and in fact have already qualified for the second phase of OFC qualifying. Alas, 9 other teams do not have this luxury, and fight for three remaining places in OFC's phase two.

There are two groups of five teams taking part in the first round of qualifications. Tuvalu is an associate member of FIFA and therefore may not qualify for the World Cup Finals. They are allowed entry here because these are officially known as the 13th South Pacific Games.

All games will be played in the Samoan capital of Apia. The rankings shown are the current ELO rankings for each team. New Zealand is ranked 76th.

Group A
108 Fiji
132 Tahiti
141 New Caledonia
195 Tuvalu
202 Cook Islands

Group B
105 Solomon Islands
133 Vanuatu
199 Tonga
204 Samoa
226 American Samoa

This is a round-robin tournament, and all teams play four group matches. The top two teams in each group advance to the semifinals of a knockout phase. The two finalists plus the third-place winner advance to the second round of OFC qualifying.

The favorites in Group A are Fiji and Tahiti, both of whom made the final six in the OFC last go around. New Caledonia is the only true threat to those two teams. New Caledonia reached the final of the previous version of this tournament in 2003, losing to Fiji. Fiji defeated Tahiti in its 2003 semifinal.

The two teams favored to win Group B are the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu, both of whom made the final six in the OFC as well, with the Solomon Islands finishing a surprising second ahead of New Zealand. Vanuatu recorded a 4-2 victory over New Zealand in the final six, so both teams are challengers. It is hard to overlook Samoa because they are the hosts, but both the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu should advance to the semifinals along with Fiji and Tahiti.

203 teams start the journey for the final 32 spots. By the close of the 13th South Pacific Games, that number will be down to 197.

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